Another Round of Talks, Another False Dawn? As the officials from both—the United States and Iran—sit in Washington to discuss a way out of the morass that the two countries have found themselves stuck in for months, the question uppermost in the minds of many is: Will this time be any different for Washington and Tehran?

According to reports, the negotiators from the US and Iran are working hard to end the war, thus reopening the Strait of Hormuz and lifting the US blockade of Iran. With its economy in tatters, Iran is finding it hard to drag the conflict any longer and therefore would welcome any relief from any successful talks.

The US is equally badly stuck in the muddle of its own creation, though at the behest of Israel. Reeling under a national debt that has surpassed the historic threshold of 40 trillion and an investment of billions of dollars every month in the Iran war is what is costing President Donald Trump his political career, the country’s image, and any speculated positive results at the mid-term elections that the US is about to vote in November.

The rise in oil prices, trading over $105 a barrel on Brent on 22 September, is another factor that the US has on its mind while exploring any settled negotiation with Tehran.

Yet, neither side “wants to be the first to surrender its leverage,” according to sources from both sides, quoted by Reuters.

The US President is on record saying the US and Iran could reach a deal after midterm elections on 3 November. Yet, as a pressure tactic, Trump says that the US would negotiate from a vantage point as it controls the Strait of Hormuz, thus choking the Iranian economy. The Strait is also blockaded by Iran, Washington is under pressure to see free passage for ships on the global oil supply route.

So, where do we stand as negotiations are underway, seeking a way out of a crisis that has shaken the global economy and threatened peace across the region?

According to former US negotiator Dennis Ross, he saw only a 30% chance of an agreement being reached before the vote. Yet, Ross says, both sides may have stronger reasons to make a deal before than after the midterms.

The showdown

The talks are underway. Nonetheless, there seems to be no backing from the war of words on either side.

Trump is known for his verbal missiles while confronting an adverse situation. Time and again, he threatens Iran once again with its annihilation if no deal takes place.

A senior Iranian official, on the other hand, said: “Our fingers are on the trigger.” He accused the US of using the economic blockade and threat of force as tools of coercion.

Meanwhile, as Gulf states have shown their opposition to the proposal for payment of transit fees, Tehran decided to drop the demand.

Since the UN General Assembly has done little in reaching a peace deal, Gulf leaders, in a meeting with Trump in New York, sought clarity on Washington’s endgame beyond the midterms, including on whether the US would resume military action if Iran refused to return to negotiations.

Ebtessam Al-Ketbi, president of the Emirates Policy Center think tank based in Abu Dhabi says: “It’s still not clear what Trump’s endgame is, or what the alternative to the pressure campaign would be.”

A Western official, quoted by Reuters, summed up the development, saying, “It is all about opening the Strait of Hormuz. We’re all under pressure domestically and the Iranians know that.”