Israel is likely at risk of civil war or state collapse due to deepening political, economic and social fractures, according to a classified CIA assessment report, published on 5 October this year.

The assessment, titled “Fracture From Within,” was prepared in August by the CIA Red Cell, a unit tasked with challenging prevailing intelligence assumptions, Drop Site News reported, citing two US sources familiar with its contents.

The secret assessment warned that Israel risks sliding into civil war or political collapse amid growing political, economic and social divisions after years of wars in Gaza, Lebanon and Iran.

As the October 27 election looms, Israel feels pressure due to economic strain, rising military spending, anger over exemptions from compulsory military service for ultra-Orthodox Jews and escalating violence by Israeli occupiers in the occupied West Bank.

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s dogged struggle to remain in power is only aggravating the governmental and constitutional tension. Not to forget the rising settler violence in the occupied West Bank, the killings of Gazans, and ongoing conflict with Iran and Lebanon: worn-out soldiers from long drawn-out combat are said to be suffering serious psychological trauma.

The military draft dispute has also emerged as one of Israel’s sharpest internal fault lines, with resentment growing over exemptions for ultra-Orthodox men following repeated reserve mobilizations.

But the focus of the secret assessment report is what it cites as Israel’s international isolation. Even the US support is shrinking, which may deepen internal instability.

The assessment appears to focus only on Jewish citizens in Israel and does not take into account Arab citizens, who make up about 20 per cent of the country’s population.

The CIA Red Cell produces analysis and ideas that challenge prevailing assumptions and expose groupthink or blind spots within the intelligence agency.